Report from Tegucigalpa Saturday, August 14, 2009 By Danny Dyer Tegucigalpa, Honduras My last update left Manuel Zelaya camped out at the Honduran-Nicaraguan border in El Paraiso awaiting the tens of thousands of loyal Hondurans that would accompany him in his triumphant Messianic return to power. Come across the border alone he could not. He had to have a welcoming hoard that would offer him protection. Unfortunately for Zelaya the only hoard that showed up were the ever present journalists curious to see this side show and hoping for a confrontation. They would offer no protection, of that we can be sure. When it became apparent that the crowds expected were not going to make it to the border, and that sitting in a tent on Nicaraguan soil was making him look foolish, Zelaya decided it was time for a new play. Report from Tegucigalpa Saturday, July 25, 2009 As Zelaya headed to the Honduran border at Las Manos, ordinary Honduras citizens stayed in their homes in the border areas, obeying the curfew. A farce ensued — with Zelaya tiptoeing over the border, daring someone to arrest him. He was on his cell phone "talking to world leaders," while cooperative "media" filmed the charade. All the while, he obviously had no plan to try to enter the country and be arrested. He had previously announced his intention to return to Washington once again on Tuesday. U.S. Secretary of Secretary Hillary Clinton, obviously tired of Zelaya's buffoonery, denounced his "premature" attempt to return to Honduras as "unhelpful." She is clearly getting her fill of "Mel." Here is a report on the situation in Honduras from a man living near Las Manos: Maybe you had the chance to watch the circus that Mr. Zelaya did in our border with Nicaragua. Zelaya did not have the courage to walk into Honduras. He just stood there in the border enjoying all the cover that the international press gave him as principal actor of this charade. Let me tell you that he left Managua 2 days ago with a caravan of 30 vehicles that included his closest collaborators. Nicaraguan police provided protection and, believe it or not, more than 20 vehicles were from the press! I do believe he never had the intention of getting into Honduras but he miscalculated things and this event will prove to be an error on his part. You see, he looked the way he really is —irresponsible and confrontative. He looked real bad. People in Honduras are peaceful as you know, and all decent people in Honduras are real tired of this guy. At this moment, the political institution is studyng the proposal that Pres. Arias made early this week — a proposal that was rejected by Zelayas´s negotiators, but I think that they will have to reconsider and go back to the negotiating table, even though they will have the opposition of Chavez. Chavez never approved this mediation by Arias. He would certanly prefer Insulza from the OAS to be the mediator — somebody who has proven to be an ally to Chavez on this matter. As I told you, Zelaya will be flying to Washington this next week to talk with officials there. Some Congressmen from the US who have been supporting Honduras are coming this weekend. So we will have to wait to see what happens. Tonight we have beeen told on tv that the department of El Paraíso will be in "toque de queda" all day tomorrow. We do not know why, but maybe the army and police knows something important is planned by the Zelaya supporters. Something that I am very proud of is the behavior of our national army and police. They have worked very hard to keep everything in control. Knowing that in this 27 days, there have been more than 240 protest meetings and rallies against and pro Zelaya, it is only a miracle that nothing real bad has happens. I hope in God that things will cool down in the near future so we can go back to our business as always. I deeply appreciate your serious concern about our situation and I am happy and proud that Honduras has friends like you. At this moment, there is a sense that we have been left alone by our dear ally the USA YES, OUR ARMY DID MAKE A BAD IMPRESSION ON DAY ONE, BUT IT WAS NECCESARY. I only hope that the truth will eventually come out. God bless you! Report from Tegucigalpa Friday, July 24, 2009 As Zelaya reportedly heads to the Honduran border at Las Manos, here is a report on the situation in Honduras from a family physician who practices outside Tegucigalpa: TEGUCIGALPA — Here is a first-hand report from Honduras, written by a family physician who practices near the capital: As of July 23, 2009, Honduras has divided itself into two groups. The larger group — representing about 80 percent of the people — supports the new government. About 15 to 20 percent of the people support former President Zelaya. Supporters of Zelaya (and Venezuelan president Hugo Chavez) consist of the following people: • Some unions of workers forming a bloc call “Bloque Popular”. They are a well-known leftist group. • Associations of teachers from the elementary and high school levels. Perhaps half of the association is pro-Zelaya. • The “Union Democratica” (UD) a small political party party that has five of the 128 seats in Congress. Three of the five Congressmen are supporting Zelaya. • A minority of the Liberal Party. • These groups have perhaps 70,000 to 80,000 supporters, at most. • The OAS, the U.N., and the European Union The opposition, which supports the new government and is against the return of Zelaya, includes: • The National Party • The Liberal Party • The Catholic Church • The Evangelist Church • The Anglican Church • All major elements of civil society • All groups of businessmen • The armed forces • The police force • The Democracia Cristiana (DC) political party • The PINU political party (the majority of members) • Canada, Chile, Taiwan, Israel, Panama President Micheletti is a stubborn man who was an ally of Zelaya until the Presidential Primary election earlier this year. Micheletti knows Zelaya very well, and he also knows all the lies that Zelaya and his group are capable of telling just to enjoy the power of government. The so-called referendum, or “Cuarta Urna,” that Zelaya was promoting turned out to be what everybody knew since the beginning — a big “fiasco” and elaborate fraud — that was intended to serve as an excuse to set up a Constituent Assembly to write a new constitution that would perpetuate Zelaya in office past his term. The referendum was not authorized by the Congress, as required by law, and was not going to be conducted by the Supreme Electoral Tribunal, as required by law, but by a rump group of Zelaya supporters. The ballots were not printed by the government, since the election was illegal, but were instead printed by Chavez in Venezuela and shipped to Honduras. Zelaya was removed from office by the Honduran Supreme Court — not by the military. The military simply executed a court order removing him from office, in accordance with Article 239 of the Constitution. It provides that any person who proposes removing term limits on the Presidency is automatically removed from office and cannot hold any office for 10 years. At this point, the mediation work by President Arias of Costa Rica is at a dead end. This is because the first point of discussion was the return of Zelaya to power, and this is something that President Michelleti, the Supreme Court, and the Congress are not willing to accept. The reasons are very clear: Zelaya is a criminal who has violated the Constitution in a way that disqualifies him from holding public office. In addition, he has ties to drug trafficking and has engaged in bribery and corruption. Zelaya is not a conciliatory man. He is somebody who will not stop until his plans to incorporate Honduras into Venezuela’s orbit are realized. He has received too much money from Chavez, and now he has to pay back. (He made a contract with the devil!) The real problem in Honduras is not internal. Of course, there are the groups of people demanding Zelaya’s return, but they are a small minority. Most of them are radicals. They have already exploded bombs in front of newspapers and radio station buildings, trying to intimidate the general population. Then you have President Arias talking about a civil war in Honduras. Our real problem is on the outside. All aid coming from Europe and the U.S. has been suspended. We will have a rough time moving forward. We surely will have the support of bilateral treaties with Central American countries, and the oil supply seems to be secure, but it’s going to be a bad time for Honduras, at least for six months. Fortunately, there are many positive things that have happened. We have seen a union between Catholics and Evangelicals — all Christians in one big unified group. That is something that was unthinkable only three months ago! In all the churches of Honduras, people are fasting and praying, because all we want is to be left alone to solve this crisis and decide ourselves about our future in democracy and freedom. Today there is a big rally in Tegucigalpa in support of the new government, peace, and democracy. We want to show the world that the few cannot oppress or tyrannize the majority. Note: The UD (Union Democratica) and the FUTH (Federacion Unitaria de Trabajadores de Honduras) are the two groups most actively supporting Zelaya. These groups are known to be receiving funds from the FARC (Colombian communist guerrillas). FARC is the major drug dealer and trafficker in Colombia. In April 2008, a Colombian Army successfully attacked a FARC guerrilla base on the border with Ecuador. The army got a lot of information, including a laptop computer in which was a big list of organizations receiving funds from the FARC. The list included UD and FUTH — Zelaya’s foot-soldiers. This week a video surfaced, in which you can see the head of the FARC guerrillas explaining the support that they give to President Correa of Ecuador, a strong ally of Chavez and of course a supporter of Zelaya. Since Zelaya’s departure, there has not been a single plane landing in Honduras with drugs or money. Under Zelaya, we had at least 20 landings a month. During 2009, there were reports of 14 small planes that burned or were destroyed after landing and introducing drugs and money. It is believed that for every plane destroyed there are four planes that have come and gone undetected. You have to ask yourself how the new government of Micheletti has survived, considering the pressure against it from around the world and now the cut-off of all international aid. It is only because the new government has the support of the majority of the people in Honduras! Yesterday, Honduras broke diplomatic relations with Venezuela.
Report from Tegucigalpa Monday, July 20, 2009 Here is the latest report from Danny Dyer in Tegucigalpa... Monday, July 20, 2009 Good Morning Everyone:
So last week Mel abandoned the tent strategy and jetted off to visit the only un-visited country left on the isthmus, and thus yet to grow weary of his presence: Mexico. There he received more red carpet treatment and grand assurances that he, Zelaya, is indeed the legitimate president of Honduras, while at the same time offering zero commitment to assisting him in his bid to regain the presidency. And why should they? The Mexicans could care less who is running Honduras and if their Big Brother to the north is beginning to pull back from this whole stinking affair then why should they stick their necks out for a guy who is fast becoming yesterdays news.
And the U.S. did exactly what I told you they were going to do in the last update: They began quietly changing tone and position concerning the country of Honduras. And that meeting the State Department was supposed to have with Zelaya last Tuesday? Never happened.http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124952525314809919.html. (For all of the latest updates and news reports concerning Honduras go to www.supportfreehonduras.com.)
An OAS delegation is currently in Honduras and has been graciously received by the interim government. Initially Honduras was going to refuse the group because OAS General Secretary Jose Miguel Insulza was going to be a part of said delegation. Interim president Micheleti stated that if Insulza came then the whole thing was off. Insulza is nothing but a lap dog for the ALBA whose only simplistic one liner statement (repeated ad nauseam) concerning the not so simplistic developments in Honduras has been, "I don't think its written in the Honduran constitution that you take the president out of the country in his pajamas". Well now, isn’t that quick. What Mr. Insulza doesn't seem to understand is that countries should not be concerned about what IS NOT written in their constitutions but what but IS written. What is clearly and simply stated in the Honduras constitution is that the president cannot attempt to change the constitution in order to alter the term limits clause and the judicial branch ruled that Zelaya's proposed referendum was both illegally being carried out and was for that exact stated purpose. The constitution also states that if the executive branch attempts such a change that the president will be stripped of power and is no longer considered president. So I guess the guy that was taken from his home and unceremoniously dumped in Costa Rica was not the president after all: with, or without pajamas. Honduras will receive the OAS delegation and has even decided to allow Insulza to attend, albeit only as an observer.
This is all just show anyway. I've already said that there would be no meaningful negotiations and I stand by that. What’s happening here is a series of meetings where by Honduras and the OAS will quietly come to an agreement that will allow the OAS to come away from this whole affair without looking too weak. They were stood down by one small country that believed in freedom and were willing to stand up for their constitution. The OAS goal now is, like the US, to get themselves out of this mess while retaining some dignity. Make no mistake; Honduras is holding the winning hand. Honduras knows it, Obama and Hillary know it, and the OAS knows it.
The one real danger in this entire affair has, in my opinion been avoided. There was a point in this drama where some of us believed that pro Chavez forces, working with Nicaraguan operatives, would successfully fan the flames of Honduran unrest to the point where Venezuela could justify an invasion using Nicaragua as a launching pad. This was a real possibility and I believe that the prayers of thousands of people were instrumental in quelling this threat. The Nicaraguan people never had any desire to engage in violent activity against their Honduran brothers but the Machiavellian plans of Hugo Chavez and Daniel Ortega could not be discounted. The desire was there but Zelaya was never able to build up the head of steam necessary for them to take the risk. Now, especially with Columbia and Venezuela at each others throats concerning drugs, FARC and the leasing of Columbia military bases to the US, Chavez has his hands too full to attempt to come into Honduras and forcefully reinstate his guy Zelaya.
What this means is that, although Honduras continues to suffer unrest in multiple areas of the country, the struggle is decidedly internal.
Instability is still a daily reality for the major urban centers of Tegucigalpa and San Pedro Sula. Downtown's are routinely shut down by demonstrators on both sides of the conflict and the unions continue to strike, disrupting the flow of goods and services throughout the country. The teachers unions have been particularly disruptive, holding the education system hostage by refusing to teach classes and using the universities as meeting centers for planning leftist, pro-Zelaya demonstrations. The Marxists (dormant but not dead) viewed this constitutional crisis as an opportunity to rise to dominance and are reticent to allow the fervor and fire of their beloved revolution to be doused. So we have marches (not that big and not too violent) vandalism, a lot of graffiti (I should start importing spray paint), and down right thievery.
The Honduran government is currently in the uncomfortable position of having to show unreasonable restraint in the face of unreasonable and blatant civil disobedience. They have been hesitant to crack heads because they don't want give any more ammunition (no pun intended) to the international press that has thus far enjoyed painting the interim government as violent coup thugs that are ruling the country at the point of a gun. This depiction is not true, and believed less every day, but it still remains a point that must be taken into account by the Honduran government at this point in the game.
Hardened criminals, petty thieves, and gangs have been quick to seize on this interlude of reduced security enforcement to infiltrate crowds and introduce a decidedly violent element to the demonstrations. One of the more creative twists on this strategy has been to "demonstrate" in a mall where then they steal clothes from the stores. Its interesting how those demonstrations always wound up in United Color Of Benetton.
I figure that that government is going to give this whole charade another two to three weeks. Most of Tegucigalpa and San Pedro Sula is anxiously awaiting for order to be restored. And where is Zelaya? No doubt looking for another country to visit.
I want to thank everyone for your continued prayers and support for the both the people of Hondurans and the missionaries that are working here. Although some aspects of this crisis are simple the causes of the unrest are not. Many of the people that have taken to the streets are desperate, and hopelessness is is their constant companion. Myself and my fellow missionaries understand that ultimately this is not a political battle but a spiritual one. Continue to pray that we move and speak with wisdom and that Gods glory will be manifested in the people of Honduras.
This last week has been one of uncertainty and frustration in Honduras.
With the rumors that Zelaya was heading back to Honduras and openly calling for insurrection, Zelaya’s people decided to disrupt traffic flow throughout the country by physically taking strategic points. I had to cancel my trip to Copan Ruinas because I couldn’t get out of the city and we couldn’t get to the prison for the same reason. The protests are effective because it doesn’t take that many people to cause disruption and due to the fact that the police are not engaging the protestors in order to avoid violence. Its a real pain in the neck for the rest of the country and its draws press but its an extremely small amount of people relatively speaking: maybe 10-20,000 nationwide. And, of course, after much anticipation (hah) Zelaya didn’t show.
So now we have the failure of the negotiations between Zelaya and Honduras in Costa Rica. There was a seven point plan but the rest of the points are unimportant because the first point on the list was the return of Zelaya to the presidency and this was a non-negotiable point with the Honduran government. The truth is that talks were doomed from the outset because the other points in the seven point plan, all negotiable to the Honduran government, were smoke and mirrors with the real objective of President Arias and the international community being to get Honduras to take back Zelaya.
Now that negotiations have broken down Jose Insulza, president of the OAS, is saying that the organization will begin to increase pressure on Honduras. What form this will take is unknown.
There is talk of civil war but its all outsiders saying it. In fact Arias, the president of Costa Rica, said that civil war could break out if the negotiations weren’t successful. This, in my opinion was an unwise statement and was said to pressure the parties involved in the negotiation to come to an agreement. It didn’t work. This I want to make clear. Hondurans are not talking about civil war nor does that environment presently exist in the country.
Are there risks? Of civil war at this time, no, but there is real risk of increased disruptions and unrest due to the open involvement of Venezuela and Nicaragua in Honduran affairs by financing the pro-Zelaya groups within the country.
Now Zelaya is saying that he will return "next weekend". What does this mean? More of the same. More disruptions, more threats from the OAS. More rhetoric from Chavez.
Honduras is at an important juncture in my opinion. This next week is critical as we see how this failed negotiation angle plays out. The international community will no doubt paint Honduras as the guilty party for not receiving Zelaya back with the other assurances that were offered in the seven point plan. This stance will be seen as a green light by Venezuela and Nicaragua to increase their support of the pro-Zelaya factions that are causing the unrest (not that they were being deterred before). When you throw in the fact that Zelaya has said that he would rather die in Honduras than bounce from country to country indefinitely, this week is shaping up to be rather interesting.
Please keep Honduras in your prayers and pray for minsitry that is being carried out here and by others around the country.
In Christ
Danny